There is something curious happening in global trends: defense ministries are flush
with cash, arms expos are drawing more headlines than fashion weeks, and phrases
like “strategic depth” and “multi-domain readiness” are back in vogue.
From NATO’s 5% GDP pledge to drone races in the Caucasus, the world is rearming
at a pace unseen since the Cold War, with new players, new technologies, and old
fears back in a new style. So, are we witnessing a historic shift in the global order, or
just another round of strategic fearmongering and overcompensation?
The Surge in Defense Spending
In 2024, global military spending reached a staggering 2.72 trillion dollars, marking a
historic peak in defense expenditure. According to the Stockholm International
Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the 10% rise in global military spending between
2023 and 2024 has been the sharpest year-to-year rise since the end of the Cold
War, and heavy hitters like the US, China, Russia, Germany, and India now
collectively account for nearly 60% of the world’s military spending, with the US
alone contributing over $900 billion, or roughly 37% of the global total.
Similar historical highs have been reached in Germany, where a constitutional
amendment passed in March of 2025 approved its largest defense budget since the
end of World War II, allocating over €100 billion to modernize its armed forces under
the “Turning point” initiative.
The Nato June 2025 Summit marks another monumental change, at which the
member States agreed to a landmark commitment: raising defense and
security‑related spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, more than double of the previous
budget. This pledge includes 3.5% for core military functions and 1.5% for broader
security investments, such as cyber defense, strategic infrastructure, and civilian
resilience.
This stark increase in defense worldwide is a reflection of the rise of geopolitical
tensions in the world. In this evolving landscape, military readiness is perceived as a
necessity-even for countries that once emphasized soft power. The result is a
complex arms build-up not seen since the Cold War, but this time marked by a
multipolar order
Regional Accelerations and Strategic Drivers
The war in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East, especially the Iran-Israel crisis,
have served as powerful accelerants driving the rising global militarization. The
potential shift in US posture has equally prompted former allies to reconsider their
reliance on American military support. Trump has repeatedly questioned NATO’s
relevance, demanded steeper European burden-sharing, and hinted that the US may
withhold support from allies that do not meet spending expectations
In response to Ukraine specifically, the European Union unveiled its Readiness 2030
initiative (formerly “ReArm Europe”) in March 2025, aiming to mobilize up to
€800 billion for defense and security investments. Structured around joint
procurement loans, fiscal flexibility, and private capital mobilization, the plan is
designed to enhance Europe’s operational readiness amid growing concern over
potential US disengagement and end of support. Many European policymakers now
envision a gradual evolution toward strategic autonomy, especially in France,
Germany, and the UK, as the Western security architecture adapts to a world where
the US may shift its focus.
Europe also acknowledges implementation challenges: debt-heavy nations, legacy
defense ecosystems, and institutional inertia make deep structural reform difficult.
Proposed fixes include a European Rearmament Bank or a capability coalition model
to coordinate multilateral procurement and harmonize real military readiness across
the continent
Meanwhile in Washington, US legislators have proposed a $55 billion increase in
defense funding, aimed at countering threats from China, Russia, and Iran and
bolstering infrastructure, munitions stockpiles, and presence in the Indo-Pacific
region.
At the same time, Middle Eastern states are ramping up military spending: for
example, Saudi Arabia is reportedly spending nearly 7% of its GDP, or about
$188.51 billion, on defense, underscoring how regional insecurity is driving both
procurement and modernization in arms sectors worldwide.
From Users to Makers: Emerging Power Rearmament
Countries previously relying heavily on arms imports, like India, Poland, and
South Korea are now turning the global and historical tendencies and becoming
self-sufficient, or even exporters themselves.
A standout example is South Korea’s K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzer, a
domestically developed artillery system that has become one of the world's
best-selling land platforms. The K9 has been exported to countries like Poland,
Finland, Australia, Egypt, and Estonia, with South Korea’s total defense exports
rising from $3 billion in 2020 to over $14 billion in 2023, and on track to reach $20
billion by 2025, backed by a $73 billion order backlog as of late 2024.
Poland, for its part, has begun local production of the K2 Black Panther tank and K9
howitzers under technology transfer agreements with Korea- signaling not just
procurement, but industrial scaling and regional ambitions.
Simultaneously, Global South powers such as Turkey, Egypt, Brazil, and Nigeria are
leveraging strategic procurement away from Western producers.
Turkey has emerged as a formidable force in export-driven militarization: Turkish
defense giant Baykar earned around $1.8 billion in exports in 2024, accounting for
roughly 30% of Turkey’s total defense exports, as Bayraktar TB2 and Akinci drones
became more widely used weapons in Africa and the Middle East. Notably, Turkish
authorities signed a $3 billion arms export and joint production deal with Saudi
Arabia, and more recently announced the export of 48 domestically designed fighter
jets to Indonesia: a deal valued at nearly $10 billion.
Collectively, these trends reflect a broader shift: a multipolar rebalancing in which
previously dependent states grow autonomy and influence through defense-industry
know-how, reshaping the global arms landscape beyond traditional Western
dominance.
Today's New Reality
Today’s arms race isn’t driven by tanks or fighter jets: it’s being shaped by cheap
commercial drones, AI-powered systems, and the militarization of cyberspace and
orbit. Ukraine, now producing up to 3 million military drones annually, expects over
4.5 million drones in 2025, primarily “kamikaze” units costing under 500 dollars each
to produce, yet responsible for a striking share of battlefield impact in current military
operations.
The Global Peace Index 2025 highlights how these low-cost systems deliver tactical
parity at asymmetric cost, redefining lethality and operational tempo.
At the same time, the US-China competition centers on AI-coordinated drone and
counterspace systems capable of disrupting satellite networks, signaling a shift from
traditional arms to technological leaps .
Historically, this arms surge echoes the rearmament in between the First and
Second World War, as well as the Cold War’s arms spirals, but today’s version is a
lot more multipolar and multifaceted, dispersed across traditional weaponry as well
as cyber, AI, and space domains. Today’s arms race is driven by innovation from
state actors, private companies and tech start-ups, and private militias in warzones,
all at once.
Drone technologies once exclusive to superpowers are now accessible to smaller
states and non-state groups, accelerating a new revolution in military affairs.
This transformation raises essential questions: is this the new norm of strategic
readiness in an increasingly fragmented world? Can arms control adapt to the new
autonomous systems, space weapons, or AI in combat? And crucially, could smaller
powers leverage asymmetric tech to reshape regional balances while preventing
proliferation to non-state actors?
Only time and careful surveillance of the ever changing and increasingly complex
world militarization trends and international decision-making will tell.
Sources:
Global powers boost military budgets by record percent | Responsible Statecraft
Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2024
EU Official Urges Nations to Produce Millions of Drones a Year by 2030 - Business Insider
Germany pledges to hit 3.5 percent defense spending target by 2029 – POLITICO
South Korea, Romania pledge defence cooperation amid reports of contract in works | Reuters
Baykar becomes Türkiye's leading exporter with $1.76 billion - PHOTO
Turkey to export 48 of its nationally produced fighter jets to Indonesia | AP News
4.5 Million Drones Is A Lot Of Drones. It’s Ukraine’s Goal For 2025.
Global-Peace-Index-2025-web.pdf